As the seasonal period of goodwill recedes, and people trudge back to work (only to grab another week off before the end of January while the kids are still on holidays), some of us are prone to ponder the state of the world, and how 2017 might run its course.
This time last year I was optimistic about the coming year, despite the slew of celebrity deaths that kicked it off. In some ways, this may have been the harbinger of things to come, a portent of the gloom that was 2016. I did not predict Brexit nor the Trump presidency. But neither did I predict that the Aussie stock market would rise 20% …well, a selected group of WA ASX listed stocks anyway, as shown by the BN30 index, something my business posted daily from Jan 4th 2016. It started at 100 (index) and today sits above 120.
Like many, I knew there was disquiet in areas of the western populace, but did not think there was enough to herald the UK to leave the EU, or for the orange bullying buffoon to actually get elected to the most powerful position on the planet (is it though?)… even though he garnered nearly 3 million LESS votes than his opponent. Malcolm Turnbull’s (nail bitingly close) reelection seems amazing in hindsight, compared to the crazy results elsewhere.
Meanwhile the Aussie economy ticked along, with some high points in iron ore miners and gold, and varied other places. The global economy also improved, helped by a resurgent US (now raising its interest rates, not once, but twice) and an OK China, expanded global trade. The Indian, East Asian, Brazilian and other economies are now part of the global picture, and contribute to its future much more than its past. The European economy has less sway than before. The Aussie economy is now entering its 26th year without a recession, and there does not seem to be one on the horizon either.
However, back on the ground, things are tough for many in business in WA. Real estate sales are slow, as is advertising, print, retail, media and the whole raft of mining and professional services. IT & technology is a growth area, as is aged care services. There are deals being done, IPOs and reverse take overs being planned and executed, money being raised. Not on the grand scale of the mining expansion from 2004-2012 no, but it is there nonetheless. And it’s patchy.
So here we go 2017. Things could bump along for a while before lifting, but most people now think the worst is behind us. Whereas I got the Brexit and US election totally wrong, I am not going to predict elections in WA, Germany or France, but a change in government in all 3 is not out of the question. Plus sa change… as the French like to say…
We can complain about the wind, or just expect it to change. The leader, as John Maxwell once noted, is the one that adjusts the sails, tweaks the business, sees opportunities, and sails off in a new direction, plotting their own course. That is what we should do in 2017. Happy sailing!